Mid-major teams generally have one option for making the Big Dance: winning a conference tournament title.
On rare occasions, a few mid-major squads piece together such solid resumes that the Selection Committee cannot ignore them. Gonzaga (19-2), Nevada (19-1) and Buffalo (18-2) appear to fit that mold this season.
But what about Lipscomb?
The Bisons have caught the eyes of the college basketball world with victories over TCU, SMU, Vermont and Liberty, along with close losses to Louisville and Belmont (x2).
Do they stand any chance to get an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament?
The answer: probably not. However, it isn’t completely out of the question.
Lipscomb touts an impressive 17-4 overall record, and the Bisons are a perfect 8-0 in ASUN play. They’re also 2-3 against Quadrant 1 opponents and 2-1 against Quadrant 2 opponents.
Heading into Saturday’s contest against North Alabama, Lipscomb sits at No. 36 in the NET rankings and the KenPom ratings.
The Bisons can hang their hat on a marquee victory at TCU on Nov. 20. But the biggest factor working in Lipscomb’s favor is that it does not have any bad losses. The ASUN’s first-place team is 11-0 against Quadrant 3 and 4 opponents, and their worst loss came at home to Belmont (a top-70 team) on Nov. 15.
All that to say, Lipscomb is best off taking care of business and winning its conference tournament on March 10. However, they might be able to survive a hiccup in the ASUN tournament if they do the following:
1. Win their final eight regular season games
The Bisons are going to be favored in each of their eight remaining regular season contests. They can enter the ASUN tournament with a 25-4 record if they handle each opponent.
2. Win the ASUN quarterfinal and semifinal games
Lipscomb would stand at 27-4 overall if it won its first two ASUN tournament games. But most importantly, pulling out victories in those games helps the Bisons avoid the pitfalls of having a loss to a low-NET team on their resume.
3. Lose the ASUN title game to Liberty
If Lipscomb is going to lose the ASUN title, it needs to happen against Liberty. That figures to be a Quadrant 2 loss, which wouldn’t be nearly as damaging as losing to Kennesaw State (NET: 337) or Stetson (NET: 347). A tournament loss to a team other than the Flames would likely spell an NIT trip for Lipscomb.
The Bisons would still be sweating on Selection Sunday even if all three scenarios happen. History tells us that the margin of error for mid-major teams is very, very thin. Programs like Drexel, Hofstra, Missouri State and Monmouth have first-hand experience with that over the last 15 years.
But Iona lost in the 2012 MAAC semifinals and still managed to sneak into the NCAA tournament with a 24-8 overall record. So, it may be a rarity, but there’s at least some precedence for a team with a Lipscomb-like resume to get an at-large bid, although the debut of the NET rankings this season has led to some uncertainty.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, Lipscomb’s toughest remaining test comes against Liberty at home on Feb. 13. A victory in that contest would likely help Lipscomb clinch the ASUN regular season title, which comes with home-court advantage for the conference tournament and an automatic bid to the NIT.
A Feb. 20 visit to Ft. Myers to play Florida Gulf Coast could also be challenging, but it’s reasonable to think that Lipscomb could win the rest of its conference games and finish with a 16-0 ASUN record. That would put the Bisons in the driver’s seat for the ASUN tournament and possibly allow for a postseason slip-up.
The bottom line is that Lipscomb can avoid any drama by simply winning the ASUN title for the second-straight year. But its resume might just be good enough for a back-door entrance to the Big Dance.