Four teams have earned their right to compete in the conference championships this weekend. On Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers visit the Atlanta Falcons, and the New England Patriots will host the Baltimore Ravens.
On the NFC side, the San Francisco 49ers are making their second straight conference championship game appearance. The bigger story this year, however, is the change in quarterback for the 49ers.
Colin Kaepernick took over for the previously injured Alex Smith in Week 10 and quarterbacked the 49ers to a tie versus the St. Louis Rams. It was assumed that head coach Jim Harbaugh would keep Smith as the starter after he was healthy, but Harbaugh stood beside Kaepernick. With a 5-2 record under Kaepernick as QB, Harbaugh did not become a Monday morning quarterback.
Kaepernick led San Francisco to the second overall seed in its conference and a first-round bye. Questions loomed over the young quarterback as to how he would play in his playoff debut. Kaepernick did not disappoint, as he rushed for 181 yards – an all-time record for a quarterback in a single game. The 49ers toppled the Packers to cement their spot in the conference championship game.
A winless record in the playoffs for the Atlanta Falcons since 2004 followed the team last Sunday when the Seattle Seahawks came to town, riding a 6-game winning streak. The Falcons comfortably led 20-0 walking into the locker room at halftime but watched their lead crumble as Seattle scored 28 unanswered points, eventually leading 28-27 with less than a minute in the game. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan drove the offense into field goal range to set up Matt Bryant with a 49-yard try. Bryant split the uprights and gave Atlanta its first playoff win since drafting Ryan.
On January 20, the two NFC contenders will battle in Atlanta, where Matt Ryan has a 33-6 win/loss record. A huge question for the Falcons entering Sunday’s game is whether or not they can slow down (much less stop) Colin Kaepernick. One answer to that question does not come on the defensive side, but the offensive side. Atlanta ran the ball 26 times for 167 yards and controlled the line of scrimmage. If the Falcons can possess the ball and run effectively, it keeps the San Francisco offense on the bench.
On the flip side, the 49ers have a strong run defense. They have allowed 155.7 rushing yards a game in the regular season (fourth in the NFL), while the Falcons are 29th in rushing with 87.3 yards a game.
This game, however, could turn into a shootout due to the multitude of play-makers each teams has at their disposable. Both teams certainly have the ability to keep up with a high-scoring game. The Falcons have the seventh-highest scoring offense while the 49ers sit four spots back.
In the end, I believe the NFC Championship game’s winner will be the San Francisco 49ers. They are simply the better team. It also helps to have a coach and most of starters that have been in this position before.
The AFC Championship also presents one of the biggest stories of the weekend. The rematch of the 2011-12 conference game will take place in New England again this year. The Patriots are looking to redeem themselves from the Super Bowl loss against the Giants last season. The Ravens are determined to help Ray Lewis get his second Super Bowl ring in his final year of playing.
Last year, the game between these two AFC heavyweights was decided by a missed field goal in the final seconds by Baltimore’s kicker, Billy Cundiff. That miss sent the Patriots to their sixth Super Bowl appearance.
This year, the game could once again come down to a missed field goal. The two teams play good defense and have great offenses to compliment. It is incredibly difficult to judge which team will come out on top because these two squads are both talented and play with great execution.
The New England Patriots were the top-rated scoring offense in the regular season. Tom Brady had another video-game-like season and the defense has improved greatly from being ranked 31st in the NFL last year.
The Ravens have handed the reigns of the offense to Joe Flacco this season. While the run game is still a vital part of the Ravens’ success, Flacco has been given more opportunities to take advantage of his strong arm. Considering he has led this team to a second straight conference title game, I’d say he has taken advantage of those opportunities.
The AFC Championship game will be a competitive game, unlike the most recent trampling that occurred in Foxboro. Both of the defenses have good pass rushes along with a ball-hungry secondary. The most important key to winning for either team is to not commit turnovers on offense, and to create them on defense. Over the course of the regular season, Baltimore earned a +9 turnover differential while New England has amassed a whopping +25 differential.
As tough as it is to decide the result of the game, I say the Baltimore Ravens win. That is, with one deciding factor – Ray Lewis. When a player has had an impact on one franchise for so long, there is no telling what his teammates will do for him. Ray Lewis has shown up to play for 17 long years. He is the emotional leader of the team and will get the Ravens to show up as well and cement themselves as the Conference Champion.